Prediction of Riverbank Erosion 2020 (Jamuna, Ganges and Padma Rivers)


Riverbank erosion, the untold miseries undermining the economic development of the Bangladesh. While the international community is labeling Bangladesh as a rising star due to its rapid economic growth, riverbank erosion is threatening the economy and security of the country by displacing millions of people. This displaced population is further stressing our metropolis and cities. However, the fight of the government and the people against the riverbank erosion continues. The Center for Environment and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) is continuing its scientific support to the government for progressive development in Disaster Risk Deduction (DRR) of riverbank erosion. As a part of the comprehensive DRR of riverbank erosion, erosion prediction is proved as an effective DRR measure for reducing economic damage and people suffering caused by the erosion. The erosion prediction aids the national agencies responsible for river management, local government and people living along the banks of the major rivers for disaster decision making.

Since 2004, predictions for morphological changes have been conducted for the Jamuna River followed by the Ganges and the Padma. It has, thus, been 16 years that predictions are made available to national level stakeholders. Evaluation of the predictions for the last few years shows a reasonably good match with the occurrences. The upgradation of the prediction tools (in 2017) by considering morphological change of the river due to natural and human intervention has increased both the efficiency and accuracy. CEGIS is predicting riverbank erosion in the major rivers one-year ahead. Additionally, CEGIS has developed tools for predicting riverbank erosion two-year ahead for the Jamuna, the Ganges and the Padma Rivers which has been operated for erosion prediction of these three major rivers for the last three years.

Since 2005 the prediction activities had been funded by the Jamuna-Meghna River Erosion Mitigation Project (JMREMP) and EMIN project of the BWDB and WARPO. Thereafter in 2008 it was funded by the UNDP. In last few years, The FRERMIP of the BWDB funded the erosion prediction efforts. However, this year the study is supported by Research and Development fund of CEGIS.

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